As we transition from spring into meteorological summer, the latest Met Office Deep Dive offers a comprehensive look at the UK’s evolving weather patterns.
Following a notably dry and sunny spring, the forecast now points to a more unsettled and variable period ahead, with a mix of rain, showers, and occasional dry spells. So, let's get into it.
A Shift in the Weather
The jet stream, although not particularly strong for this time of year, is currently sweeping across the UK, steering a series of weather systems. This has brought more unsettled conditions, particularly to the northern and western parts of the country.
By Thursday, a more significant system is forecast to bring heavy rain to northern areas, especially western Scotland and Cumbria, where rainfall totals could exceed 30-40mm. In contrast, southern and southeastern England are likely to remain largely dry.
The jet stream will send several low pressure systems towards the UK this week.
— Met Office (@metoffice) May 27, 2025
A subtle shift northwards in the jet stream later in the week will result in pressure rising in the south and temperatures climbing into the mid 20s Celsius for some of us 📈 pic.twitter.com/IRkqfgRwel
READ MORE: Weather trends: blocking highs and the amplified jet stream
The Weekend Outlook
Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast becomes more complex. A low-pressure system is expected to move across Northern Ireland and northern Scotland. Its timing and position have shifted slightly in recent model runs, which has implications for the rest of the UK. A plume of warm, humid air from France and Spain had the potential to trigger severe thunderstorms in the south, but with the low arriving earlier than previously expected, this plume may not have enough time to fully develop.
Nonetheless, even modest surface heating, with temperatures rising to 22–23°C, could still lead to some convection and isolated thunderstorms, particularly in the southeast. However, updated model data suggests that the energy available for storm development (measured as CAPE) is lower than earlier forecasts indicated, reducing the likelihood of severe weather.
A Pattern of Change
The overarching theme for the coming days is one of alternating systems: periods of wet and windy weather followed by brief, quieter interludes. This pattern is expected to persist into next week, with the northwest bearing the brunt of the rain while the southeast remains relatively dry.
Rainfall accumulations for the week are expected to stay below 100mm even in the wettest areas, which, while significant, are not exceptional for this time of year. In the southeast, totals may be as low as 0.1 to 10mm, continuing the region’s dry trend.
Making plans for the week ahead?
— Met Office (@metoffice) May 26, 2025
Here's the latest forecast with Kathryn Chalk 👇 pic.twitter.com/Mu17CrBrqK
READ MORE: Waters surrounding UK gripped by prolonged marine heatwave
Longer-Term Trends
Looking further ahead, forecast confidence decreases, as is typical with extended outlooks. The Met Office’s Forecast Confidence Index currently sits slightly below average, reflecting some uncertainty in the details. However, the general trend suggests a gradual return to more settled conditions as we move into June.
Probabilistic pressure models hint at high pressure building from the south or southwest. While this doesn’t guarantee prolonged dry spells, it does suggest a shift toward more stable weather, especially in the south. The northwest, however, may still see occasional incursions of wetter weather due to the mobile nature of the pattern.
Marine Heatwaves and Sunshine Records
Sea surface temperatures around the UK are currently 3-4°C above average, qualifying as a marine heatwave. While this might sound appealing to beachgoers, it poses potential risks to marine ecosystems and is a sign of ongoing climate change.
Finally, the UK has experienced an exceptionally sunny spring. Scotland and Northern Ireland have already recorded their sunniest springs on record, with England and Wales not far behind. Some areas have even seen over 135% of their seasonal average sunshine.
You can watch the full Met Office Deep Dive with Alex Burkill here.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.